The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has warned that a developing El Niño event could bring above-average temperatures to large parts of the world, with the African continent expected to experience particularly warm conditions in the coming months.
The WMO’s latest seasonal forecast indicates a high likelihood of significant shifts in rainfall patterns globally, with the entire African continent projected to experience warmer-than-average conditions during the August to September 2026 period.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres has described the strengthening El Niño as another threat to a planet already experiencing record-breaking heat.
“El Niño is not just on our doorstep – it is inside the house and turning up the heat,” Guterres said.
He warned that the climate phenomenon was adding to extreme weather conditions, including intense heatwaves, wildfires and unusually warm oceans.
According to the WMO, El Niño typically causes major changes in rainfall patterns around the world. Parts of southern Africa can experience drier conditions during the phenomenon, raising concerns about potential impacts on water supplies, agriculture and food security.
However, wetter-than-normal conditions are expected in several other regions, including the Greater Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, Southern Europe, western North America south of 45 degrees north and southeastern South America.
The WMO said South Africa is among the areas likely to experience above-average temperatures, with particularly high probabilities of warmer conditions centred over southern Africa and South America during the Southern Hemisphere summer.
The strengthening El Niño comes against a backdrop of already elevated global temperatures and unprecedented ocean heat, increasing concerns about the potential severity of its impacts.
The African Development Bank has warned that El Niño events can have significant economic consequences for African countries, with combined losses potentially reaching between $10 billion and $20 billion.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the developing weather pattern should serve as a warning for governments and communities to prepare for possible impacts.
“This El Niño developing against the backdrop of unprecedented ocean heat and rising temperatures, provides governments and communities with a window of opportunity to anticipate risks and act before impacts unfold,” Saulo said.
“The decisions we make today will shape the impacts we experience tomorrow.”
How El Niño is measured
El Niño is identified by monitoring sea-surface temperatures in a specific region of the Pacific Ocean and comparing them with long-term averages.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses satellite observations and other data to track these temperature anomalies. Warmer-than-average conditions are associated with El Niño, while cooler-than-average temperatures are linked to La Niña.
The latest NOAA data shows temperature anomalies approaching 1°C since July 2026.
If the warming trend continues, forecasters could see the development of a stronger El Niño event, potentially increasing the risk of extreme heat and disruptive rainfall patterns in affected regions.
Authorities and communities across Africa are being urged to use the early warning provided by the forecasts to prepare for possible impacts on water resources, agriculture, infrastructure and public health.