As the US-Israel war with Iran enters its third week, analysts warn that escalating tensions are severely disrupting global fertiliser markets, posing a growing threat to food security—particularly in developing countries.
At the centre of the disruption is the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor along Iran’s coastline through which roughly one-third of the world’s fertiliser trade passes. The waterway, which also carries about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas, has been largely shut due to ongoing hostilities.
Fertiliser production is highly energy-intensive, with natural gas accounting for up to 70% of manufacturing costs. As a result, much of the world’s fertiliser is produced in the Middle East. However, missile and drone strikes across the Gulf have forced energy facilities offline, leading to shutdowns at fertiliser plants across the region.
The timing is particularly concerning, as farmers in the Northern Hemisphere prepare for the spring planting season, leaving little room for supply delays.
Fertilisers are essential to global agriculture, with experts estimating that about half of the world’s food production depends on them. Analysts warn that prolonged disruptions could significantly reduce crop yields and drive up food prices.
Nitrogen-based fertilisers such as urea are especially critical in the short term. Without them, even a single missed planting season can result in lower harvests. The global urea market was already under strain prior to the conflict, with reduced output in Europe following cuts to Russian gas supplies and export restrictions imposed by China to secure domestic availability.
Several major producers and importers are already feeling the impact. Qatar has halted operations at the world’s largest urea plant after suspending gas output due to attacks on liquefied natural gas facilities.
In India, a major consumer, three fertiliser plants have reduced production as LNG supplies from Qatar decline. The country, which imports over 40% of its urea and phosphatic fertilisers from the Middle East, now faces potential delays in shipments, including a recent order of 1.3 million tonnes.
Bangladesh has shut four of its five fertiliser plants, while Australia has warned of shipment delays. Egypt, responsible for about 8% of globally traded urea, could also face production challenges following disruptions to its gas supply.
Brazil, which is almost entirely reliant on imported urea—much of it transported through the Strait of Hormuz—is particularly vulnerable. In the United States, farmers are already reporting shortages, with supplies estimated to be about 25% below normal levels for this time of year.
The supply crunch has triggered sharp price increases. Urea export prices in the Middle East have surged by around 40%, climbing to over $700 per metric ton. In the United States, fertiliser prices have risen by as much as 32% since the conflict began.
Analysts warn that prices for nitrogen-based fertilisers could double if the conflict persists, placing further strain on farmers and global food systems.
With the Middle East dominating fertiliser production, experts say there are limited alternatives to offset the supply shortfall. Russia, the world’s largest fertiliser exporter, is also facing disruptions due to ongoing conflict, while China continues to restrict exports despite having sufficient capacity.
The combined pressures are raising fears of a deepening global food crisis if the conflict continues to disrupt supply chains in the weeks ahead.