South Africans could see another significant drop in fuel prices in February, driven largely by lower international oil prices.
STANLIB chief economist Kevin Lings says crude oil prices have declined steadily in recent months, easing pressure on local fuel costs. “Crude oil traded around $70 a barrel in April and May, but it has since come down to about $60 to $61 a barrel,” Lings said. “This is having a very positive impact on fuel prices.”
However, he cautioned that volatility in the rand remains a concern, noting that the local currency has weakened against the US dollar over the past few weeks.
Despite this, Lings expects petrol prices to decrease by between 60 and 70 cents a litre, while diesel could fall by around 50 to 55 cents a litre.
He said the anticipated reductions would provide further relief to consumers already under financial strain. “If this reduction comes through, petrol prices will be about 7% lower year-on-year, compared to where they were a year ago,” Lings added.
The outlook comes as Statistics South Africa reported a slight uptick in consumer price inflation in December, with the annual rate rising to 3.6% from 3.5% in November. The month-on-month increase in the consumer price index (CPI) between November and December was 0.2%.
Stats SA said the average inflation rate for 2025 stood at 3.2%, the lowest level in 21 years, excluding 2020 when inflation fell to 1.4%.
Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation remained unchanged at 4.4% in December. Over the 12 months to December, fuel prices increased by 0.6%, with diesel rising by 3.7% and petrol by 0.1%.
Any confirmed fuel price cut in February is expected to offer welcome relief to households and businesses alike.