BusinessTech - Former head of the State Security Agency (SSA), Thulani Dlomo, has issued a stern warning that South Africa risks facing civil unrest on the scale of the July 2021 riots if urgent action is not taken to address youth unemployment and failing service delivery.
Speaking at a seminar in Durban on Thursday, Dlomo said the current socio-economic conditions – marked by rising poverty, governance failures, and soaring joblessness – could create the perfect conditions for another national crisis.
“There is absolutely the possibility of another civil uprising of similar proportions,” Dlomo cautioned. “We are ignoring the warning signs despite repeated alerts from experts and leaders. It’s a recipe for disaster.”
Dlomo described the combination of high youth unemployment and deteriorating governance as an “internal crisis” that, if left unaddressed, could spiral into nationwide instability.
His warning comes as South Africa grapples with an unemployment rate of 31.9%, the highest in the world, according to the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey by Stats SA. When accounting for discouraged job seekers, the rate rises to a staggering 41.9%. Young people remain the hardest hit, with 59.6% of those aged 15 to 24 and 39.4% of those aged 25 to 34 currently unemployed.
“If you have a situation where 60% of young people are without work and poverty is rising, that’s not just a crisis – that’s a powder keg,” said Dlomo. He stressed the need for strategic intervention, urging government to invest in education, drug prevention, and youth entrepreneurship programmes.
Dlomo also pointed to the violent unrest in Mozambique following the 2023 elections – where socio-economic frustrations intensified post-election violence – as a cautionary tale for South Africa.
President Cyril Ramaphosa echoed similar concerns last month, warning that deteriorating basic services, especially in water provision, are already fuelling local unrest. Speaking at the National Water and Sanitation Indaba, he drew attention to criminal syndicates dubbed “water mafias” sabotaging infrastructure and profiteering from tanker contracts, often with municipal collusion.
“These are the factors that create a perfect storm,” Ramaphosa warned. “Communities are angry, and protests linked to water shortages are already on the rise.”
As warnings grow louder from both government and intelligence veterans, the message is clear: unless decisive steps are taken to address South Africa’s structural failings, the country could face renewed unrest, instability, and long-term socio-economic damage.