South African motorists could be in for a welcome fuel price reduction just in time for the busy Easter holiday season. Early estimates suggest that petrol and diesel prices are set for significant cuts in the first week of April, though final adjustments will only be confirmed at the end of March.
According to the latest figures from the Central Energy Fund, the price of 95 unleaded petrol is expected to drop by 95 cents per litre, while wholesale diesel prices could decrease by between 91 and 95 cents per litre.
Factors Behind the Expected Decrease
South Africa’s fuel prices are largely influenced by global oil prices and the rand-to-dollar exchange rate. In recent weeks, Brent crude oil prices have dipped from around $73 per barrel at the start of the month to a low of $68 due to concerns over an oversupply in the market. The OPEC+ alliance, which includes Russia, has agreed to boost oil production in April despite fears that a global trade slowdown could weaken demand. However, oil prices rebounded slightly this week, with Brent crude trading at $71.45 on Tuesday morning, driven by rising tensions in the Middle East.
Geopolitical and Economic Influences
The geopolitical landscape has added volatility to oil markets. On Monday, Israel launched strikes across Gaza, potentially jeopardizing a ceasefire with Hamas. Meanwhile, the U.S. has intensified military actions against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, with President Donald Trump holding Iran accountable for future rebel attacks on American vessels.
On the currency front, the rand has strengthened significantly in 2025, now trading at around R18.06 to the U.S. dollar, down from over R19/$ in early February. This improvement is partly due to investor concerns that Trump’s aggressive trade policies could weaken the U.S. economy, leading to a softer dollar.
Fuel Levy Adjustments
The anticipated drop in fuel prices is expected to help cushion the impact of a scheduled increase in the carbon fuel levy. Effective 2 April, the levy will rise by 3 cents per litre, bringing it to 14c/litre for petrol and 17c/litre for diesel. However, other fuel levies remain unchanged following last week’s budget announcement.
At the start of March, petrol prices in South Africa were cut by 7 cents per litre, while wholesale diesel prices fell by between 17.50c and 23.50c per litre. Currently, 95 unleaded petrol in Gauteng is priced at R22.34 per litre—slightly lower than the R22.45 recorded a year ago—while the wholesale diesel price stands at R20.16, compared to R22.41 last year.
Final fuel price adjustments for April will take effect on the first Wednesday of the month.