South Africa could face a hotter and drier-than-normal summer as a potentially strong El Niño event develops over the Pacific Ocean.
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) says the 2026/27 El Niño has already reached levels typically associated with a very strong event and could strengthen further during spring.
According to the latest seasonal forecast, much of the country is expected to experience below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures between October and December.
The warmer and drier conditions could continue into the beginning of next year, raising concerns about the potential impact on communities, agriculture and water supplies.
SAWS has warned that prolonged heat and reduced rainfall could increase the risk of severe heatwaves and drought, while placing additional pressure on already vulnerable water resources.
However, the weather service stressed that the presence of El Niño does not automatically mean South Africa will experience drought.
The effects of El Niño can vary considerably from one event to another and differ across regions, depending on other climate factors.
Residents are nevertheless being urged to remain alert to seasonal weather updates as the country heads into the summer months, particularly in areas that are already vulnerable to water shortages and extreme heat.