South African motorists are on track to receive welcome relief at the fuel pumps in August, although renewed conflict between the United States and Iran could reduce the size of the expected price cuts.
Mid-month data released by the Central Energy Fund (CEF) shows that both petrol and diesel are currently recording over-recoveries, paving the way for lower fuel prices when the next monthly adjustment takes effect.
Based on the latest figures, petrol prices could decrease by between R1.26 and R1.30 per litre, while diesel prices are showing potential reductions of between 47 cents and 74 cents per litre. Illuminating paraffin is also expected to fall by around 73 cents per litre.
The current fuel price outlook is as follows:
- Petrol 93: Decrease of R1.30 per litre
- Petrol 95: Decrease of R1.26 per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Decrease of 47 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Decrease of 74 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: Decrease of 73 cents per litre
While the projected reductions remain substantial, the over-recoveries have narrowed considerably during July as global oil prices climbed and the rand came under renewed pressure.
At the beginning of the month, petrol was showing an over-recovery of more than R2.50 per litre, while diesel exceeded R3.50 per litre. However, rising international oil prices have reduced those gains by more than R1 to R2 per litre over the past two weeks.
Brent crude oil is currently trading at around $85 a barrel after recording gains over several days, while the rand has remained relatively resilient at around R16.34 to the US dollar despite increased volatility in global markets.
The recent rise in oil prices follows renewed military action between the United States and Iran. The latest escalation has heightened concerns about oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important shipping routes for crude oil.
Market analysts have warned that continued instability in the region could keep oil prices above $80 a barrel, with the possibility of climbing back towards $100 should tensions intensify further.
Although oil prices briefly retreated towards pre-conflict levels following a ceasefire and renewed diplomatic efforts, the latest hostilities have once again raised concerns about global energy supplies.
The CEF's fuel price outlook remains a snapshot based on current market conditions and could still change before the end of the month as international oil prices and the rand continue to fluctuate.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official fuel price adjustments before they take effect on Wednesday, 5 August 2026.