South African motorists can expect a substantial drop in petrol and diesel prices next week, with data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicating significant over-recoveries in fuel prices.
Based on month-end data, petrol prices are expected to decrease by between 64 and 78 cents per litre, while diesel prices are set to drop by approximately 90 cents per litre. The price cuts are expected to take effect before any tax changes, which will come into play on April 1. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has frozen the general fuel and Road Accident Fund levies for 2025, but the carbon fuel levy will increase by 3 cents per litre, slightly offsetting the price reductions.
The projected price changes are as follows:
- Petrol 93: Decrease of 64 cents per litre
- Petrol 95: Decrease of 78 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.05% (wholesale): Decrease of 90 cents per litre
- Diesel 0.005% (wholesale): Decrease of 93 cents per litre
- Illuminating paraffin: Decrease of 84 cents per litre
The positive market conditions, such as weaker oil prices and a stable rand/dollar exchange rate, have contributed to these over-recoveries. Despite oil prices rising slightly to $73 a barrel, they remain lower than last month, benefiting local fuel prices. The ongoing global market uncertainty, particularly around US trade policies, has put pressure on oil prices, but oil-producing nations are set to increase production in the coming months, which is expected to further ease prices.
The rand, although not strong, has maintained stability amidst global market turbulence, helping fuel price recoveries. Analysts predict that the rand will continue to be influenced by global events, particularly US trade policies, but its relative stability is providing some positive outlook for motorists in South Africa.
The official price changes will be published by the Department of Petroleum and Mineral Resources before they take effect on Wednesday, April 2, 2025.