Analysts Expect Positive First-Quarter GDP Growth Despite Ongoing Unemployment Challenges

Posted on June 9, 2026
by Yashmika Dukaran


South Africa's economy is expected to show signs of growth when Statistics South Africa releases the country's first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures on Tuesday.

Economic analysts are forecasting positive growth for the first three months of 2026, driven largely by stronger performances in the mining and agricultural sectors, as well as resilient consumer spending.

Analysts believe the impact of rising global oil prices, linked to ongoing tensions in the Middle East, is unlikely to be reflected in the first-quarter figures and will only become evident in second-quarter data.

Makwe Fund Managers analyst Makwe Masilela said key sectors of the economy are expected to provide support for growth.

He noted that mining, which contributes just under six percent to South Africa's economy, recorded growth of 0.6% during the first quarter and could help boost overall economic performance.

Masilela added that consumer spending, which accounts for nearly 60% of economic activity, is also expected to have played a significant role. He said inflation remained relatively low during the period, while interest rates had not yet increased, helping to sustain household spending.

"The impact of the conflict involving Iran and the resulting pressure on oil prices is only expected to start filtering through in the second quarter," Masilela explained.

While economists await the GDP data, concerns remain over South Africa's persistently high unemployment rate, particularly among young people.

According to the latest Quarterly Labour Force Survey released by Statistics South Africa, the country's unemployment rate stood at 32.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Youth unemployment remains especially severe, with 60.9% of people aged between 15 and 24 unable to find work.

The challenging labour market has prompted many young South Africans to seek alternative income opportunities online.

Financial services company JustMoney has published a list of ten legitimate ways for young people to earn money online, including paid surveys, tutoring, coding, digital marketing, freelancing and content creation.

JustMoney spokesperson Thandokazi Ngemntu said the country's youth continue to face significant barriers to employment and are increasingly looking to digital platforms to generate income.

Ngemntu said many online opportunities require little to no start-up capital, making them accessible to young people seeking to supplement their income or gain work experience.

She highlighted paid surveys as a suitable entry point for beginners, while freelancing, writing and content creation offer opportunities for individuals with strong communication and digital skills.

The GDP figures due to be released later on Tuesday are expected to provide a clearer indication of the economy's performance during the first quarter of the year, although unemployment remains one of the country's most pressing economic challenges.