Ethiopia is expected to complete its more than 20-year bid to join the World Trade Organisation (WTO) this year, marking a significant step in its push to integrate more deeply into the global economy, even as the trade body itself faces growing uncertainty.
The anticipated accession follows a series of sweeping economic reforms in the East African nation, a major exporter of coffee and gold. Analysts say that despite a challenging global environment marked by rising protectionism and geopolitical tensions, WTO membership could help strengthen and stabilise Ethiopia’s economy.
Former state minister of planning and development Endalkachew Sime described the move as part of a broader strategy to provide “strategic clarity” amid global uncertainty. He said the WTO bid complements Ethiopia’s wider engagement with the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) and its participation in BRICS, aimed at improving access to development finance and reducing dependency on traditional lenders.
Ethiopia’s Trade Ministry has not responded to requests for comment on the progress of the negotiations.
The WTO, which has served as the global arbiter of trade rules for three decades, is itself facing heightened uncertainty. Last month, US trade representative Jamieson Greer signalled that Washington would explore alternative frameworks, raising questions about the organisation’s future influence.
For Ethiopia, however, accession is seen as a potential turning point as the country continues to recover from a severe economic crisis characterised by foreign currency shortages, high inflation, and a sovereign debt default in 2023.
According to Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director of the International Trade Centre, WTO membership would help anchor Ethiopia within a rules-based global trading system.
She said small businesses would be among the biggest beneficiaries, gaining improved access to international markets and opportunities to integrate into global value chains.
Over the past two years, Ethiopia has implemented IMF-backed reforms, including currency liberalisation, easing foreign exchange restrictions, and opening key sectors such as banking.
Trade experts note that WTO membership would require Ethiopia to lock in these reforms, including commitments affecting telecommunications and financial services.
Hannah Ryder of the consultancy Development Reimagined said Ethiopia’s status as a “least developed country” would continue to provide preferential access to major markets including the European Union, India, and Brazil.
Manufacturers in Ethiopia’s textiles and apparel sector could also benefit from expanded market access under WTO “most favoured nation” rules, potentially attracting investment from Asian producers seeking to diversify supply chains.
However, industry stakeholders caution that membership is not a guaranteed solution. Lowering protective tariffs could expose local manufacturers to increased competition from countries such as Bangladesh and Vietnam.
Experts also emphasise that long-term gains will depend on improvements in infrastructure, energy costs, logistics efficiency, and access to finance.